The international political think-tank said there could be a military coup in the country or assassination of Prime Minister, Morgan Tsvangirai by military generals disgruntled by the inclusive government.

There is a real risk of a coup, initiated by military leaders whose influence is beginning to wane and whose patronage system is being eroded,” the ICG said in its latest report on Zimbabwe released this week.

The ICG warned that a military coup could trigger in-fighting between factions within the divided armed forces to plunge Zimbabwe into chaos and armed conflict.

“The unwillingness of some army generals to publicly recognise the inclusive government’s authority, and especially Tsvangirai’s role, lends credence to the threat. An assassination attempt on Tsvangirai also cannot be ruled out,” the group added.

The think-tank, however, said the assassination of Tsvangirai or a coup by senior army officers to forestall the shaky political transition process may not have backing of all in the military particularly among the lower ranking soldiers and could open up a new phase of anarchy and bloodletting in Zimbabwe between rival military factions.

“A coup by senior security hardliners would probably lead to fractures within the army and infighting within and between the ranks, possibly even on ethnic lines, and would likely plunge the country into chaos,” the group warned.

“To counter the greatest and very real stability risk – an attack against Prime Minister Tsvangirai or a military coup – a strategy is needed to retire virtually all members of the security sector senior leadership.

“Persuading them to go peacefully will not be easy: the generals fear the post-Mugabe era. The government could create leverage with a law that offers immunity to senior generals from domestic prosecution for past political crimes (excluding crimes against humanity, war crimes and genocide) in return for retirement,” the group said.

The ICG suggested that the incoming South African president, working with the SADC mediation team, should negotiate with the army generals, making clear that those who do not step aside would risk prosecution for their crimes domestically or internationally.

The ICG however, noted that the opposition entry into government was a landmark development, and broad segments of the population were optimistic for the first time in years that a decade of repression and decline could be reversed.

“Donors should pursue a “humanitarian plus” assistance strategy that covers the priority areas in the government’s Short Term Emergency Recovery Programme (STERP), including revival of the education, health and water sanitation sectors, as well as a functioning civil service, and reconstruction of basic infrastructure.

“Zimbabwe should be treated as a post-conflict society in need of some front-loaded aid. Donors might also create a contact group, both to support the political process and to coordinate aid flows,” it said.